Russia plans to spend 17.1 trillion rubles ($202.6 billion) on national defense in 2027, about 27% more than the 13.5 trillion rubles previously budgeted and the highest planned figure since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, according to government budget documents that surfaced on September 28, 2026. The documents set total defense spending over the next three years at 50 trillion rubles ($591.7 billion).
The revision reverses the restraint Moscow signaled last year. President Vladimir Putin said in June 2025 that Russia planned to reduce defense spending over three years, and the 2026 budget law cut the national defense chapter to 12.1 trillion rubles from 13.6 trillion in the amended 2025 budget. The 2027 figure arrives as the 2026 deficit forecast doubles to 3.2% of gross domestic product (GDP) from 1.6% and the draft budget is due at the State Duma, the lower house of parliament, by October 1.
Russia Defense Budget: What the 17.1 Trillion Ruble Line Covers and Omits
The 27% figure measures the new 2027 line against the earlier plan for that year, not against current spending. Against the 12.1 trillion rubles the 2026 budget law assigned to the chapter, the 2027 figure is roughly 41% higher, although actual 2026 defense spending is classified and will not be disclosed. The documents put total 2026 federal outlays at 48.6 trillion rubles, about 4.5 trillion above the 44.1 trillion in the budget law, and no breakdown of the difference has been reported.
The chapter is also a partial measure. Service pensions, National Guard forces, and Federal Security Service border troops sit in other budget lines, yet the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) counts them as military expenditure. On that broader definition, SIPRI put Russian military spending at about 16 trillion rubles in 2025, an estimated $190 billion, or 7.5% of GDP. The 17.1 trillion-ruble chapter figure alone already exceeds that all-in total, so comparable 2027 military expenditure will likely run higher still.
The claim on the federal budget is rising as well. At 17.1 trillion rubles, the chapter would absorb about 35% of the 48.8 trillion rubles in federal expenditure projected for 2027, compared with 29% planned for 2027 in the budget law adopted in November 2025 and 32% in the amended 2025 budget. Subtracting the 2027 figure from the three-year total leaves an average of about 16.5 trillion rubles a year for 2028 and 2029, which points to a sustained plateau rather than a one-year spike. Annual splits for those years have not been reported.
Russia Budget Deficit, Debt, and Tax Measures Behind the Defense Increase
Finance Ministry materials from September 24, 2026 project 2027 revenue of 43.3 trillion rubles against spending of 48.8 trillion, a deficit of 2.2% of GDP, or 5.5 trillion rubles, up from 1.2% in earlier three-year projections. The ministry cited defense and security as a strategic priority and proposed a progressive 13% to 22% scale on passive personal income, plus windfall levies of 30% on excess income for non-ferrous metals and fertilizer producers and 20% for gold miners. These follow the January 2026 rise in value-added tax to 22% from 20%.
The new revenue is small against the increase it supports. The windfall tax on metals and mining companies is expected to raise about 200 billion rubles ($2.4 billion) a year, while the upward revision to the 2027 defense line alone is 3.6 trillion rubles, 18 times larger.
Borrowing and reserves carry the balance. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on September 21 that additional spending needs had emerged during 2026 budget execution and that the deficit would stay within 3% of GDP, a ceiling the documents now exceed. The government raised its 2026 net borrowing plan by 26% to 5 trillion rubles, will draw 459 billion rubles, about 11% of the liquid portion of the National Wealth Fund, and cut its 2026 oil and gas revenue estimate to 7.6 trillion rubles from 8.9 trillion. Total borrowing in 2027 is set to rise 43% to 7.7 trillion rubles, and state debt is projected to reach 21.7% of GDP from 19.9%, above the 20% level the authorities regard as safe.
Analysis: The draft treats the defense line as the fixed variable and lets the deficit, debt, and civilian tax base absorb the strain. The restraint signaled in the 2026 budget law is gone from the 2027 plan, and the 50 trillion-ruble envelope indicates that state-financed demand for Russian military production will stay high through 2029, as the planned State Armament Program for 2027 to 2036 starts with funding expected to stay classified. Debt near 22% of GDP remains low by international standards, so the near-term limits are borrowing costs and civilian output, not an inability to pay. For North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) planners, fiscal stress is more likely to slow Russian growth than to cap military spending.
Last year’s budget cleared its first State Duma reading on October 22, 2025 and was signed on November 28, a guide to the likely calendar. Three markers will show how firm the plan is: whether lawmakers pass the new levies intact, whether the 2027 defense line is revised upward again, as the 2025 budget was amended twice, and how fast the National Wealth Fund’s liquid balance shrinks. The split of the 17.1 trillion rubles among personnel, procurement, and operations remains unknown.